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Analysis

HYPOTHESIS: WHAT IF KURSK WAS JUST AN OP PILOTED BY RUSSIA?

Soviet troops of the Voronezh Front counterattacking behind T-34 tanks at Prokhorovka during the Battle of Kursk
Image by Red Army photographer

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If we ignore the population factor, in a pure hypothetical way (I prefer because a lot of civilians got killed ), against the backdrop of the perhaps incomprehensible deactivation of the minefield on the Russian-Ukrainian border…my discussion with Christelle Néant/International Reporter and personal analysis…

It might be a monstrous trap set for Ukraine. It was enough to make it known in one way or another to tempt the Ukrainian side. Part of a doubtful strategy, or major mistake not being prepared enough for a massive attack ? What would have been the benefit? I see several:

– National cohesion around the Russian president, galvanization of the population around the symbol Kursk summer 1943, 80 years later and cleaning up the heads of army management that seems not so motivated

– Possibility of justifying taking the South (Nikolayev, Odessa), as Medvedev says — there is no more taboo.

– The takeover of the Sudzha pipeline gas station will destabilize the gas markets, so the price will skyrocket, who will sell less gas for more? Russia. Jackpot as winter approaches! And second KissKool effect, PM Fico, Slovakia, would no longer deliver diesel to the Ukrainian army because its gas supply would be cut off, he warned Zelensky a week ago… We didn’t see that one coming!

Diorama «Battle of Kursk» of Grekov Studio of Military Art
Image by Vasyatka1

– This operation weakens the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass because the best units have been assigned to the Kursk ops, so Russia will be able to move even faster in the South to take all of Donbass and make the junction with the Zaporozhia Oblast.

– Elimination of the FAU’s sophisticated equipment massively, what Christelle told me — Russia has never destroyed so much heavy equipment so quickly in 2 years.

– Kursk is actually a trap from which no NATO/FAU member will come out alive, the border minefield was reactivated, and the area will become a real pigeon shooting by sending a very clear message to the West: don’t piss off the bear anymore!

– A point to dig in : The US/Biden admin not aware? Seriously, who believes it? The US must know very well that the Ukraine case is closed and that those who will pose a problem in the negotiations are the hardliner fascist branches within the FAU, who have the potential to transform kyiv into the Wild West, are they trying to ensure that will be cleaned out… What a good deal this suicide operation is and it suits Zelensky well who would hear the bullets whistling much closer than Butler’s!

KURSK IS A MILITARY NON-EVENT…

I specify MILITARY, putting aside the constraint aspect for the population which was certainly terrible, let’s look objectively at what is happening on the ground.

1. The FAU can no longer be supplied in a simple way because the Russian air force has entered into action in a heavy way, the rotations operate 24/7. Sumy (the rear base) was set in place to ensure the essential part of this incursion, today it is constantly bombed, destroying the ammunition warehouses, the command centers and the man reserve buildings. The success of an operation of this kind depends only on the supply chain capacity of the rear base to ensure the functioning of the operational point.

2. The FAU, 30% of whose units have already been decimated in 10 days (almost 3,500 men), must operate without air support, and must manage on site to supply their men (ammo, food) and their vehicles with gasoline… It must be said that the type of vehicles used is rather greedy and the autonomy decreases quickly, very quickly (160 l/100km for a T80) and you have to leave the engine running for the turret to work. It’s a bit like a Tesla during hot season, you put the air conditioning on and you forget about autonomy. We are getting a lot of videos on which u can see FAU abandoning vehicles out of fuel and surrendering. At this rate, within 2/3 weeks the FAU troops will be reduced to zero. All of that for that: 10,000 dead men.

3. The FAU has a defensive wall in front of them, the drone / regular aviation is pounding them non stop. On the border, the reactivation of the mine field, not to mention the artillery barrage fire. is synonymous of getting trapped into a huge cauldron, actually the Akhmat group call their response “”a Safari nazi hunting”.

4. In the meantime, the RFAF is accelerating significantly in the Pokrovsk region, aiming for the collapse of the southern front line while all the Western media think that the FAU made the right choice. In few weeks we will see the same dejected faces that we observed after the unfolding of Bakhmyt and Avdiyevka and they will try to minimize the disaster just before going to eat in fancy restaurant… But by undressing Paul Donbass, to dress Jean Kursk too lightly, they both end up catching Russian Covid2024 pneumonia.

CONCLUSION: Nevertheless, who decided or who pushed the motivation? There is a problem on the table now and its a very serious one — Vladimir Putin is infuriated, looking at the face of Gerasimov and Shoïgu during the security board meeting to discuss the Kursk situation after the nomination of Alexey Diyumin, i can tell that some responsibilities at the highest level will be faced. Diyumin was responsible to secure Crimea, the guy did the job. The involvement of Akhmat forces is very bad news for those who dared to touch an historic symbol of the WWII. But more than a mistake, Kursk is the last nail in the Ukraine coffin. Vladimir Putin is very sensitive to the topic of mother land, he claimed : “No more talks with terrorists”.

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