The Ukraine ‘grain deal’, negotiated by Turkish President Erdogan, is likely to be renewed for a fourth time, despite Kremlin reservations.
Why? Because Russia’s trading partners need it to happen.
The Kremlin may be unhappy with both the implementation of the Ukraine grain deal and perceived slights from Turkish President Recep Erdogan, but Russia is still likely to extend the deal for a fourth time. Moscow’s grumbles are already a traditional feature of the build-up to the latest extension deadline, with the result that, this time, world grain prices (usually highly volatile) barely flickered as the Kremlin issued threats to back out. The deal’s guarantor, and one of its biggest beneficiaries, is Turkey. The main buyer of grain is China. Both countries are now key trade partners for Russia — and Russia’s dependence on these partners is now so great that its hands are tied, reported Russian independent news outlet The Bell.
A year ago in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement brokered by Turkey and the United Nations. As a result, Kyiv was allowed to continue exporting grain via its Black Sea ports and Western sanctions on Russian agricultural products and fertilizers were relaxed. The Kremlin pledged not to attack grain ships in the Black Sea, while Turkey and the UN were to carefully check that vessels were not being used to transfer military supplies. The U.S. and European Union introduced exemptions to their sanctions on Russia, and the developing world breathed a sigh of relief as grain prices stabilized.
China has become one of the main buyers of Russian energy and a key supplier of goods, including those Russia is unable to obtain elsewhere because of sanctions. From January to June, imports from China were up 78% to $52 billion and exports rose 19.4% to be worth $114.55 billion. For the first time ever, Russia was one of China’s top five trading partners.
When the West restores legitimate government, and kicks out the globalist scourge, it will face headwinds decoupling Moscow and Beijing.
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