Tsarizm
Analysis

Does Putin Have The Guts To Invade Ukraine?

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Russia is facing a choice – endless negotiations with the United States or a conflict with Western-backed Ukraine. The US seems to be ready for both options, but the Kremlin appears to be indecisive.

Although in December Moscow issued an “ultimatum” to Washington, demanding legally binding guarantees that Ukraine and Georgia will never join NATO, to this day the Kremlin has not taken any practical steps to prevent its neighbors from developing close ties with the US-led Alliance. Russia has been deploying troops and military equipment to its Western regions, and also to Belarus, but such actions do not seem to worry Ukraine and its Western backers. 

Political leaders in the West have already learned how to deal with the Kremlin’s bluffs. Despite Russia’s harsh rhetoric, the United States and its allies have started to supply Ukraine with sophisticated weapons. Reports suggest that NATO instructors are already in the Eastern European country training Ukrainian Armed Forces. The West is clearly demonstrating that it does not take Russia’s “red lines” and (empty) threats seriously. 

The Kremlin, on the other hand, continues to demonstrate its impotence by asking Western powers to stop selling arms to Ukraine. Moreover, Russia’s frequent calls on the West to force Kyiv to implement the Minsk Agreement clearly illustrate all the powerlessness of the Russian Federation. In international relations, might makes right. Although Russia certainly has a powerful army, it does not seem to be willing to use its armed forces against Ukraine. Or at least not yet.

On January 21 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held another round of talks in Geneva, Switzerland, but the two diplomats did not reach a deal over Ukraine. Instead, they agreed to “keep working to ease tensions over Ukraine”. Blinken reportedly told Lavrov that the US would provide written responses to all of Russia’s security proposals next week. It is almost certain that the United States will not make any compromises with Russia over Ukraine. Policy makers in Moscow are quite aware of that. Yet, the two sides keep simulating negotiations. 

According to Lavrov, Russia’s security demands include not just guarantees that Ukraine and Georgia will never join NATO, but also the removal of NATO forces and equipment from Bulgaria and Romania. Such a maximalist demand suggests that Moscow is trying its best to reach a compromise: if the US agrees to provide guarantees that there will be no NATO expansion eastward, Russia will give up its demands regarding Romania and Bulgaria. But Washington does not seem to ready to make any concessions to the Kremlin. Instead, US officials insist that Russia should prove that it does not plan to invade Ukraine. Lavrov, for his part, told Blinken that Russia does not intend to attack the Eastern European country. The very fact that the Russian Foreign Minister has to justify the Kremlin’s actions to his American colleague means that it is Washington that has the upper hand over Moscow. 

The United States continues to accuse Russia of building up troops near the Ukrainian border, allegedly in order to eventually launch an invasion, capture Kyiv and overthrow the government of Ukraine. Although Russian military is capable of seizing the Ukrainian capital, it is more probable that the Kremlin has deployed troops to Belarus to prevent a potential Ukrainian military offensive in the Donbass. In case Kyiv, backed by the West, starts a large-scale campaign in the coal-rich region in Eastern Ukraine, Russia would be forced to respond. Next week, the lower chamber in the Federal Assembly of Russia is expected to discuss a potential recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic – a move that could be another Russian attempt to pressure the US to make certain concessions. Still, unless Kyiv tries to restore its sovereignty over the Donbass by force, the Kremlin is unlikely to recognize the two self-proclaimed republics. 

From the Russian perspective, a formal recognition of entities that are already de facto integrated into the Russian Federation would not resolve the Ukrainian crisis, nor would it end the Donbass war that erupted in 2014. Capturing Kyiv, and destroying Ukrainian military infrastructure, could create a new geopolitical reality, and potentially force the United States to agree to make another redistribution of spheres of influence. That is almost certainly something that Joseph Stalin would do. But what about Vladimir Putin? The coming weeks will show if Putin’s strategy regarding Ukraine is just another bluff, or if he is serious in preventing NATO from using the Eastern European nation as an instrument against Russia.

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10 comments

Justin January 22, 2022 at 7:39 am

Putin wants peace and has no intention of invading Ukraine. However, the “west” has already announced their plan for a false-flag attack in Ukraine. If Russians living in Ukraine are attacked, Putin will respond accordingly.

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Nick January 22, 2022 at 6:08 pm

Russians living in Ukraine are being attacked on a daily basis since 2014. Why does it take so long for Putin to react?

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Genaro January 23, 2022 at 2:10 pm

I would say the ethnic Russians who were unethically, immorally annexed into Ukraine territory in the 1920’s (Donbass) and 1950’s (Crimea) just want to reconnect with their native homeland, and tired of living under the boot of ukronazis. Their internal referendums to secede and return to ‘the motherland’ have spoken to this most obvious truth.

Reply
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Frank McCarthy January 23, 2022 at 8:25 pm

“Guts” have little to do with National integrity.
Russia’s history of heroism can never be denied.
There’s is a country that was mangles and mauled by a host if invaders coming from all sides throughout it’s long history.
We in the West sitting on our soft cushy butts in front of our home entertainment wall screens stuffing chips down our gullets with short stubby fingers, would do best to look to our own porous feminized …(receptive) borders and wail out loud. How did this happen….Biden.

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bahn January 23, 2022 at 10:19 pm

It seems that ever since Putin told the Davos mafia in 2021 that their Great Reset is a failed plan, he has been put in the enemy category, as was Trump, Orban, etc. The World Economic Forum global communism strategy is an all-or-nothing global takeover. Putin stands in their way with Ukraine in his front yard.

Can you imagine how giddy the Davos and Wall St. cabal has been over the prospect of having Putin in their Economic Parasites Club? Access to Ukraine for these robber barons? Maybe some fat profits from Russian natural resource investments?

Putin is smarter than anyone at the table. He is marking his territory and very wise to do so. In the meantime, the global population needs to get informed on the Great Reset and prepare to dismantle this global oligarchy one elite at a time.

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Scott January 24, 2022 at 6:00 pm

The guts?… Are you kidding me? Because he sees weakness and no “guts” or brains in the west, he is playing us beautifully. The confidence he must have facing an adversary of senile intelligence gives him all kinds of “guts”. Take a nap, Nikola, you need a moment.

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Lex January 25, 2022 at 12:12 am

The question should be, will American kids fight for a country that’s trying to kill them and their families with dangerous experimental drugs that hijack their DNA, call and label them criminals and white supremacists for loving their country’s constitution and former rule of law???

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Pete Longoria January 27, 2022 at 1:25 pm

Putin doesn’t have to invade the Ukraine! He effectively owns all surrounding terrain. He can use the democrat hearts and minds program model to infuse Russia into the Ukraine, like Fuerer Fauci is infusing the all controlling, death jab, into the U.S.

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TODFURNEHAMMER January 31, 2022 at 4:24 pm

I THINK THAT CONTRARY TO WHAT A LOT OF IGNORANT WRITE, THE WEST HAS EVERYTHING TO LOSE IN A WAR WITH RUSSIA.

IT’S LIKE WW1, THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO WON WERE THE JEWS BEHIND IT AND THE US OF COURSE 9WHICH IS NOW A ZIONIST COLONY).

EUROPEANS INCLUDING RUSSIANS HAVE EVERYTHING TO LOSE IN THAT.

WHAT IF MEXICO DECIDED TO MASS TROOPS AT THE US BORDER, WHAT WOULD THE PUSSIES AMERICAN SAY?

PLUS, REMEMBER, THE US ARMY AND ITS LACKEYS (EUROPE, JAPAN, TURKEY) HAVE LOST ALL WARS SINCE 1945 ( A WAR WON THANKS TO THE RUSSIANS AT THE TIME).

THEY LOST IN VIETNAM, THEY LOST IN KOREA, THEY LOST IN IRAQ, THEY LOST IN IRAN, THEY LOST IN SYRIA, THEY LOST IN AFGHANISTAN.

THESE PEOPLE HAVE BECOME MORE PREOCUPPIED WITH GENDER THEORY THAN BEING REAL WARRIORS.

THE ONLY TIME WHEN NATO & THE US WIN IS WHEN THEY ARE 10, 000 AGAINST ONE AND HAVE ALL TECH AND FIRE POWER AGAINST NONE. AND EVEN WITH THAT, THEY TOO A YEAR TO CHANGE REGIME IN LYBIA AND LOST IN AFGHANISTAN.

BE CAREFUL THAT THIS FALSE FLAG IS NOT PART OF THE GLOBALISTS PLAN FOR THEIR ‘GREAT RESET’…

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