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It seems that the “spirit of Alaska” is not dead after all – despite the recent contrary attitude of the powerful Russian diplomat, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Ryabkov, when in the Russian State Duma he reacted to Donald Trump’s new threats to Russia, both with secondary sanctions against countries that import its oil and possible deliveries of American long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, with words about the death of the “spirit of Alaska”. All this was because of Trump’s “disappointment with Vladimir Putin”, who is allegedly not ready for serious negotiations, but also the so-called “party of war” in Europe that undermines all agreements reached – as a senior Russian diplomat believes.
However, Ryabkov was denied the very next day by Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, claiming that certain agreements reached in Alaska are still valid for Moscow and will remain so until the opposite side officially rejects them.
Little was known or said about the results of the summit in Alaska, but it was clear from Trump’s statements that he accepted one of the key Russian demands on the way to reaching a cease-fire agreement – that of the prior resolution of the main causes that led to that war. And that was officially emphasized by Moscow as a very important step that finally leads to a possible permanent agreement.
However, Trump gave up on that very quickly after a meeting with key European officials in Washington just two days after Alaska – and returned to pressuring Moscow, with increased rhetoric towards European allies to buy American weapons even faster and deliver them to Kiev. At the same time, Trump emphasized that the US is definitely withdrawing from direct deliveries of its weapons to Ukraine, which is a very frustrating situation for Europe (EU+NATO) because it has de facto transferred responsibility for the continuation of the war and the fate of Ukraine.
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However, Russia is neither Israel, nor Hamas, nor Iran, on which the White House has countless possibilities of influence (primarily military). Moscow traditionally does not allow it to be talked to “from above” and as it emphasizes – for those who try to behave in this way, it only has a counterproductive effect.
I remind that Trump, after it became clear that Moscow has serious objections to his presented peace plan for Ukraine, repeatedly threatened Russia with the introduction of new sanctions, secondary tariffs, gave deadlines of two, three weeks, one month, etc. for Putin to accept his plan. In the end, before the expiration of those deadlines, Putin would call him and Trump would become “satisfied with Putin” again the same evening, and so on several occasions until the summit in Alaska.
The last conversation, which is the eighth in a row, was initiated by Putin. The conversation lasted as much as two hours, which indicates that it was serious, although it is clear that the issue of the Ukrainian war and bilateral US-Russian relations cannot be resolved in 120 minutes.
However, after the talks, “new” changes took place. Trump was again satisfied with the conversation and expressed his hope for continuing negotiations and reaching an agreement. First, it will be initiated by their heads of diplomacy, Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, and then Trump will meet Putin again in person – this time in Budapest, and he believes that there they will be able to reach an agreement on peace in Ukraine.
So this is probably the peak of the big game around Ukraine that actually started with its independence in 1991, with countless internal turmoils under the guise of American and Russian intelligence structures like the Kiev revolution in February 2014. That dangerous game eventually ended in a real culmination — an open military conflict.
After the summit in Budapest, which Prime Minister Viktor Orban will without a doubt organize superbly, eliminating any side attempts of Russophobic statements with the goal of disrupting the summit – there will only be two solutions — achieving peace or continuing the war with even greater brutality because Russian troops will increase the pace of their advance.
I believe, or at least I want to believe, that this time peace is closer than ever, because the moment of truth has arrived and there is no turning back. It may be possible to issue ultimatums to Russia, but to act in a military nature, as was the case recently in the Middle East with the strikes on Iran – is something completely different, and Trump (or anyone else who succeeds him) will never decide on such a thing.
The reason for cautious optimism this time is precisely the Tomahawks. But not in the way that numerous analysts have interpreted it in recent days and weeks.
The Tomahawk missiles in Ukraine play a role similar to the Soviet missiles in Cuba in the missile crisis of 1961, only in reverse – which I will explain a little later. In case of reaching an agreement with Putin, Trump could rhetorically “ensure victory” for America because he scared Putin with his “sinister missiles” – as he just called them. In reality, Putin would get what he is looking for from the very beginning, but he would commit himself, like Khrushchev to Kennedy, not to publicly say what concessions he got from Trump.
At stake are not only anti-Russian sanctions, frozen Russian assets in the west, etc., but also those of a geopolitical nature, which refer to Russian zones of influence in its periphery from Armenia, through Georgia, etc. These must be firm legal guarantees and not the type of “gentleman’s words” that Gorbachev fell for when there was talk of not expanding the NATO alliance to the east.
The new Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa, until recently an international terrorist and a key opponent of Bashar Assad, who is also in Moscow, arrived in Moscow to meet Putin. These are more than significant signals of upcoming changes. Russia is returning to Syria and the Middle East through the open door. That door was always Syria.
The Trump-Putin summit must resolve a number of pressing problems that burden American-Russian relations so that an agreement on Ukraine can be reached.
In the 1961 Cuban Missile Crisis, it was agreed that, in parallel with the Soviet missiles in Cuba, the American missiles that were previously placed in Turkey, which directly threatened the USSR, would be withdrawn, and political and media silence about the latter was the American condition for such a deal.
For decades, that second part of the agreement was kept silent in the West and was taboo for any discussion. Because the US’s reputation in the world was always the most important thing (Kennedy did not give in, but Khrushchev did), the Soviets’ priority was to solve their security problem with “Turkish” missiles under Moscow’s nose, which is why they sent theirs to Cuba, so let Washington write and say what it wants afterwards.
The United States and Russia have a large number of deep differences on numerous topics in international relations, including the geopolitical outlook of the future world. Right now, Trump is once again attacking key Russian partners, demanding to stop the import of Russian oil; he is also attacking BRICS, in which he calls on all members to leave it because high American tariffs will follow.
Of course, all the big players in the world know that Trump is not all-powerful, and that after threats, he often backs down and presents things differently when the opposite side sharply shows his teeth.
Regarding the Ukrainian war, I have always said that only the USA and Russia can end it. It was their war from the very beginning and other possibilities simply do not exist, because everyone else has always been only extras in this unprecedented geopolitical game of two nuclear giants.
