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The telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the two true “lords of war” in Ukraine, ended apparently successfully for the American and Russian sides, because the very fact that they talked for two hours and five minutes speaks enough. Because, half an hour would be enough for Trump and Putin to argue.
As I have said since its very beginning – the Ukrainian military conflict was essentially a proxy US deep state – Russian war, and now only Russia and the man who defeated the US deep state – Donald Trump – can end it! Everyone else, sooner or later (and sooner is better for everyone) will have to accept it, even if only silently. Because neither Ukraine nor Europe, no matter how much they first convince themselves that it is possible, cannot wage war against Russia without American help – better to say, its participation, which will no longer exist.
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The highest European officials in the public communication space behave wisely and do not criticize Trump openly – they are well aware of all the new circumstances, above all the real situation on the Ukrainian front. First of all, as a justification for their failed policies, the European political elites “without firing a shot” put themselves under the yoke of former American President Joe Biden.
Regardless of the absence of public criticism against Trump (or maybe because of it) – it is clear that key European officials understand that this is the final confirmation of the defeat of European diplomacy! (although they won’t completely surrender yet, they will continue to try to bring Trump into their team when it comes to the approach to the Ukrainian war and how to resolve it.)
Trump has de facto recognized Putin as his equal dialogue partner and is looking far ahead when it comes to American-Russian strategic relations. He can talk to Putin whenever he wants (and vice versa), while European leaders are completely prevented from having any contact with Putin, and this fact frustrates them even though, logically, they don’t say it publicly. And not because of Putin or Trump, but precisely because of them. Namely, any attempts or phone contacts made by certain European leaders last year (e.g. former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz), were by other key European leaders and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky automatically condemned or to put it mildly, they were considered unproductive and in the worst case, they were harshly condemned as a sign of cowardice.
Although, Trump has the image of a belligerent politician, always ready to use military force if there is no other way – Trump leads a completely different policy. Through negotiations, he tries to maximize American interests on any major global issue – from trade policy and tariffs to hot global or regional crises – using the force argument as a means of pressure on his rivals.
This is how Trump is acting on the issue of Ukraine, aware of the very possible escalation of the war and the involvement of America in it if he is too harsh towards Putin. Namely, Putin not only personally does not accept the ultimatums, but he could not agree to them all even if he wanted to because of the Russian public to whom he promised the full fulfillment of all key Russian interests in the war that has started in Ukraine.
Many people in Europe do not understand this or do not want to understand it. That is why it is not surprising that the biggest shock for both Europe and Ukraine was Putin’s refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire, but conditioned it to a series of Russian demands that must be agreed with the Ukrainian side. They were even more shocked by the absence of consequences that Putin could face as a result – which they expected even after the Istanbul negotiations. Trump rejected the possibility of introducing new harsh sanctions against Russia, which were prepared by Congress. The reason why Trump is conducting partnership negotiations with Russia is America’s need for Russia not to be America’s enemy. Bearing in mind an increasingly aggressive and powerful China, the Trump administration immediately realized that they need Russia, with whom they have friendly or at least non-hostile relations.
Because of all of the above, Trump is focusing with Putin on identifying steps the two leaders can take to ensure continued talks between Moscow and Kiev which will be the road for lasting peace.
An immediate and unconditional ceasefire would be surprising even from a historical perspective. Efforts to resolve difficult conflicts where there is no clear military victor often require many rounds of negotiations with continued fighting before an agreement is reached. The Korean War ended only after 158 meetings spread over more than two years. Negotiations to end the Vietnam War lasted more than five years and included several different peace proposals before final terms were reached. While it is hard to say how long it will take for Ukraine and Russia to stop fighting for good, Trump’s chances of achieving peace may rest on patience and a willingness to continue negotiations while fighting.
Here it is important to point out what some Russian analytical circles close to the Kremlin and Ukrainian intelligence structures have pointed out in recent days – that Moscow is actively preparing for a major summer offensive aimed at finally establishing control over all remaining parts of the four Ukrainian southeastern regions that it annexed at the beginning of October 2022, i.e. incorporated into its constitutional and legal order. Of course, there are still no official confirmations from the Russian side about that offensive.
Namely, the key problem in the current negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, i.e. the West, is that Zelensky does not want to withdraw from the territories still controlled by the Ukrainian army and which Russia now considers its territory. All other points from Trump’s peace proposal are almost agreed upon or could easily be agreed upon (the non-bloc status of Ukraine is almost a fact, language and religious rights for the Russian minority are easily resolved because they are also European standards, etc.). Therefore, if Russia were to completely and physically take control of its new regions with its offensive, Trump’s formula about “freezing” the conflict on the current demarcation line could be applied very easily.
Therefore, it should not be a surprise if there is already a secret agreement between Trump and Putin that peace will be established after establishing Russian control over four regions that are currently not fully controlled by Russia. It is important to point out that the Russian president recently stated that this year the Russian army will break through the Ukrainian defense lines.
The opinions in this article do not necessarily align with the editorial opinion of Tsarizm/CDM.
