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The situation at the front in Ukraine does not show any major change on the ground. There are no breakthroughs, no large surrenders of territory. However, there is one constant – the Russian army is constantly advancing.
This progress is not great, but it is constant and with the passage of time this progress becomes obvious. The pressure on the Ukrainian army is getting stronger and stronger. Logically, the question arises, how long will the Ukrainian army be able to hold the front lines?
To achieve this, the Russians underwent a complete transformation of their military industry. Over the past decade, the arms industry faced significant challenges, with many traditional companies going bankrupt and many repair plants closing.
From missiles to artillery, during the last 3 years, the Russian government invested billions to modernize the outdated Soviet-era infrastructure.
It is clear that Russia will win this war, but at what cost?
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If the Russians celebrate a victory, it will be humiliating for the European Union. However, the Russians also will soon face their own reality.
After victory, a large part of Russian and military-industrial structure will be dismantled as the Russian state cannot sustain such a vast apparatus, including new equipment.
During Soviet times, many countries were clients, like the communist countries, the Arab world and others, but now there are several competitors, including the Chinese, Turks, Iranians and Indians, all offering low prices. The global market has shifted significantly, and Russians will fight hard to regain what they had.
They can no longer maintain this massive military industrial base due to several factors. To understand this, we need to observe the past two decades of the Russian arms industry. Despite their high Soviet stockpiles, these companies went bankrupt even with almost 1/3 of the global arms market. The answer lies in government treatment; they are required to offer up to 50% discount for domestic orders in exchange for future export opportunities. Who would invest under such conditions?
With new players, exporting will become challenging. Consequently, the Russian government will emerge with immense fiscal responsibilities, managing an economy transitioning out of a semi-war state. This will lead to thousands being laid off, normalizing labor shortages but also confronting post-war traumas.
Realistically, new Russian territories will demand investment for reconstruction. Who will invest if not the Russian state? Yes, the cost is substantial.
Thus, I highlight the reduction of industry, many pensions, reconstruction of territories, and maintaining a larger army. Challenging times are ahead as the military industry heavily pushes the Russian economy.
If Russia and Western countries (especially Germany) negotiate an end to sanctions and asset release, it could alleviate a significant part of the problem. The Russian economy has adapted to the eastern world.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, there was a whole sphere of Russian influence and a captive market for military equipment. That is gone, and the sphere of Russian influence is infinitely smaller and under threat, especially since there are now several Eastern suppliers positioned to compete on price with the Russians.
After the onset of the war in Ukraine, Russia suspended exports of ground equipment, leaving a huge vacuum for… the Chinese!
Former Russian clients in Africa, such as Ghana, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Burkina Faso, have turned to Chinese equipment after 2022. Burkina is purchasing nearly 300 vehicles from China, including armored VN-22B vehicles, which have also been acquired by other African countries.
The Chinese hunger for expansion didn’t stop there. They went to Algeria, the largest customer of Russian arms in the world, conducting tests comparing the VT-4 with the T-90 and according to some sources, they are close to finalizing a major sale.
In another move, the Chinese have established a factory in Iraq and are locally producing the VN22, in a country that has historically been a significant buyer of Russian weapons.
As I mentioned earlier, Russia will face significant challenges in maintaining its military complex, which will require sacrifices in other areas of the government.
However, despite suspending exports of ground equipment, the Russians continue to export planes and helicopters, indicating that they still hold a share of that market with their clientele.
Quite simply, the war Russia is waging in Ukraine has limited Russia’s resources. And this is exactly what China is using, mercilessly trying to steal the decades-old Russian market. However, a counter thesis to China’s laissez-faire policy appeared here – President Trump.
It is clear to the new American administration what kind of challenge China represents and that is precisely why President Trump is making great efforts to win Russia into a partnership relationship so that US could then fully devote itself to controlling China’s expansion around the world.
It is important to emphasize one fact — Washington knows that after Russia, China will try to do the same with the United States.
1 comment
I agree with the author of this article. China is not Russia’s friend. China has always been happy to fill any vacuum in the world that occurs between any country and it’s partners. In fact China will do much to encourage these instances to better themselves at the cost of anyone else. China is the home of cheap, not necessarily good but cheap. At half the price you can shoot with a cheap Chinese knockoff as easily as you can with the original model at twice the price.