Peace Negotiations On Ukraine – We Will Still Wait For An Agreement

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The peace process in Ukraine is not a process that will be completed quickly. Peace will come, and if we all wanted it, very soon. The conflict in Ukraine is a geopolitical conflict, and such conflicts cannot be resolved overnight. However, the talks in Riyadh are an excellent start, and the efforts made by President Trump and his administration are commendable.

Given the much hype surrounding the peace talks, expectations are understandably high – perhaps too high. Some observers may be disappointed that Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov have not yet come out with an announcement of a “ceasefire.”

Nevertheless, the negotiations so far, secret as well as public in Riyadh, have already brought progress, above all in relations between Washington and Moscow:

Restoration of diplomatic channels: Russia and the United States agreed to begin the process of fully restoring the work of embassies.

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Creation of a consultative mechanism: A structured dialogue has been established to resolve bilateral issues.

Launch of negotiating teams for Ukraine: The basis for future discussions and agreements has been laid

These are fundamental steps. Without them, further dialogue would be impossible. Perhaps even more significant than these tangible results was the overall tone of the talks. For the first time in many years, Russian and American officials sat across from each other not as ideological caricatures but as pragmatic negotiators. The change in atmosphere was so striking that Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly said that he “couldn’t imagine a better outcome.” His stance suggests a major shift in momentum that has been made by opening the talks.

It is important to recall here that the Biden administration, together with the EU and several other partner states, has done things in its relations with Russia that are never done in international politics. In fact, if it were not for the patience and asymmetric actions of Vladimir Putin, it is possible that a new, major global conflict would have erupted long ago.

Literally all available means were used against Russia, including the (mis)use of terrorist groups to carry out actions in Moscow, manipulating international organizations, conducting psychological and propaganda operations, issuing very harsh and unambiguous threats to those who continued to cooperate with Russia… “Red lines” were crossed long ago and diplomatic conventions violated, the US’s formational attitude towards Russia was extremely hostile, which in fact represented a prelude to an armed conflict.

With the rise to power of President Trump, America’s strategy, which used to be “negotiating Ukraine with everyone but Russia,” has now become “negotiating Ukraine with Russia, but without the EU.” This shift suits both Trump and Putin. But it has angered two important actors – Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and the EU leadership.

Despite the decline in American aid, Ukraine’s armed forces likely have enough resources to continue fighting for at least another six months. After that, their ability to stay in the war will depend on whether the EU and Britain can revive their military-industrial production – which now seems unlikely. Ultimately, in that situation, Western Europe will have no choice but to accept any agreement that is reached.

Nevertheless, Washington indirectly gave a clear message to Kiev and the EU. The territories now controlled by Russia will not be returned to Kiev and Ukraine will not be a member of the NATO alliance

However, in the saga of peace in Ukraine, some unanswered questions arise.

First, it is not entirely clear who has the authority to sign the agreement on behalf of Ukraine. Especially considering that the agreement will involve giving up both territory (which, from the point of view of the Ukrainian constitution, is illegal) and NATO (since 2019, this goal has also been enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine). Volodymyr Zelensky’s term has expired, and his rating has been in “free fall” for a long time, so it is neither legal nor legitimate.

Secondly, if we were to go with the option of organizing new presidential elections, which seems to be Donald Trump’s proposal (in order to find a legal and legitimate Ukrainian negotiator), then either a formal ceasefire is necessary, or by verbal agreement, Russian forces must cease their operations for a certain period.

Who can guarantee Russia that in the event of a formal ceasefire, contingents of European armies will not rush into Ukraine under the pretext that they are coming to serve as peacekeepers? It is quite certain that the Ukrainian forces will use the ceasefire to establish their positions on the parts of the front that have broken or are about to break.

Thirdly, several sources, including Vitali Klitschko, have been heard in recent days discussing a plan to “freeze the front line.” It is not necessary to go into further detail; the gist is that each side will henceforth control what it has militarily captured or held. What then is the motive of the advancing Russian side to cease operations against the retreating Ukrainian side? If the principle of dividing the territory in advance is operationalized through the idea of ​​“freezing the front line,” then the armed conflict will continue.

In any case, despite the fact that the start of direct negotiations is “epoch news” and despite the fact that these direct negotiations will result in positive developments and the normalization of bilateral relations that were completely destroyed during the tenure of Biden, the search for a solution to end the conflict in Ukraine remains “on a long stick”.

And here we come to another possible solution, which is the accelerated advance of the Russian army. Currently, the Russian army is 7 kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, despite the efforts of the Ukrainian army, they are unable to stop the Russian army. The entry of the Russian army into the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will be a media victory for Russia, which will significantly weaken the morale of the Ukrainian army, but also enable Russia to advance quickly because it is entering an area that is less populated and where Ukrainian defense positions are weak. Bearing in mind that the Ukrainian army will receive less and less foreign aid in the future, an open question arises, how much time will it be able to hold the front line?

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