Eastern Europe

Russia’s Population Could Drop Approximately 12M By 2035

Russian children wearing circassian traditional costume
Image by Circassian Ensemble

Russia’s national statistics office said today in its annual forecast that the population of the Russian Federation could drop by 12 in the next 15 years.

Russia’s overall population dropped for the first time in a decade last year, totaling 146.8 million as migration inflows hit record lows. It totaled 146.7 million so far in 2019, the State Statistics Service Rosstat said this month, as Russia experienced its highest natural population decline in 11 years, reported The Moscow Times.

Below are the scenarios possible for Russia’s demographic change, estimated by the report.

Optimistic scenario: 150.1 million. Natural population is expected to slow its contraction from nearly 250,000 next year to 21,300 in 2035. Migration is expected to grow from under 340,000 next year to more than 385,000 in 2035.

Baseline scenario: 142.9 million. Natural population is expected to decline by more than 350,000 next year and almost 400,000 in 2035. Migration is expected to drop slightly from almost 265,000 next year to around 264,000 in 2035.

Worst-case scenario: 134.2 million. Natural population is expected to contract by 484,400 next year and near 1 million people by 2035. Migration is expected to drop from almost 191,000 to under 16,000 arrivals in 2035.

The main reason for the decline is economic stress. Russian parents don’t feel financially able to bring more than one child into the world. The Russian Federation is an oligarchy with 1% of the population owning more than half the wealth, very similar to pre-revolutionary times. The Russian middle class is shrinking as more families slip into poverty. Immigration is also declining.

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