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The Central Bank of Russia held rates steady recently but signaled a future rise as inflation remains persistently high.
- “If the consistent inflation pressure does not start to ease and pro-inflation risks begin appearing, we allow for the possibility of a significant interest rate rise in July,” Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina said in the press conference after the meeting. Nabiullina has said previously that she expects inflation to return to the Central Bank’s 4% target rate in 2025. Right now, inflation is running at 8%, reported Russian independent news outlet The Bell.
- For the first time this year, there was disagreement among analysts about the bank’s decision in advance of Friday’s meeting. In a survey by news agency Bloomberg, a small minority predicted the bank would opt for a rate hike. In previous months, analysts have unanimously predicted that the rate would go unchanged.
- The market is ready for rate rises, with banks announcing increases in advance of the meeting, as well as planning increases for next month. Gref explained the issue at the St. Petersburg forum: “The economy is seriously overheating. It’s growing at a rate faster than it can manage, which pushes up demand and inflation.”
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