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Recent disagreements with Azerbaijan have reminded Moscow of a lasting feature of its relations with post-Soviet countries. It is reflected in the fact that countries located in the Russian sphere of influence will always feel as if Russia is exerting pressure, regardless of what Moscow’s intentions are.
Azerbaijan has once again become a “restless neighbor”, reminding Russia of a deep and enduring truth — countries in Russia’s sphere of influence will always feel pressure from Moscow. That is, Russian relations with its post-Soviet neighbors will continue to be occasionally marred by misunderstandings, as is the case with Baku today.
However, the problem is also Russia, which leads a soft policy towards the post-Soviet republics. The borders of the Russian Federation are still mostly formal for the regions, while the Russian border with China is solid, which is commendable. The legacy of the empire still survives, which in the eyes of Russian officials makes the complete demarcation of internal and external politics pointless.
Whether it manifests itself through military presence, alliance commitments, cultural and linguistic ties, or mere foreign policy dependence, Russia’s neighbors – from the Baltic states to Poland and Finland – remain in its sphere of influence. Those relations are the product of centuries of history. No matter how hard they try to get rid of it, they rarely succeed, and even when they do, Russia still occupies a central place in their collective consciousness.
The Baltic states and Finland “cut off” from Russia, primarily by joining NATO, but they cannot really live without thinking about it. Essentially, nothing changes. It is an inevitable consequence of historical ties, although it may bring trouble and anxiety, it is also inevitable.
Unfortunately, fear is a natural reaction. Analysts must understand that Russia’s neighbors will always fear it and that fear cannot be abolished. Instead, it would be wise to take it into account and manage it through a realistic policy approach. Even where relations appear stable, such as with Central Asian states, fears about Russian intentions persist.
Anyone who closely follows the work of experts, analysts and academics in the former Soviet republics will notice the anxiety when talking about Russia and Russian foreign policy. Certainly, the war in Ukraine creates additional pressure.
Russia knows that resolving regional disputes by force is usually against its own interests. But the question is whether the neighbors register this insight of Moscow. Other states inevitably judge Russia through its history, scale and power – and great powers can always be tempted to resort to easy solutions.
In today’s volatile global environment, confidence in the future is a privilege enjoyed by only a few. Countries like Russia, USA, China or India, thanks to their power, can have a certain self-confidence. Others, like Montenegro or North Macedonia, are too small to count. Small and ethnically divided North Macedonia has to look over its shoulder towards Germany and France in fear. Therefore, international law is no longer a real guarantee for anyone. Major military powers, including Russia, do not provide unlimited security guarantees to states in their immediate environment.
Geography is another key factor. The position of the country on the map shapes its destiny and foreign policy. It is naive to suggest that Russia should treat its neighbors like China treats Taiwan or the Philippines. However, Ukraine is the best lesson for Russia. In Ukraine, fascism became stronger and due to Russia’s passivity, instead of Russia strengthening its soft power in Ukraine, Russia cooperated dominantly with corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs who literally enticed Russia with sweet promises. We are seeing the results of that politics now.
On the other hand, Russia’s neighbors have open borders in many directions and constant opportunities to “balance”. It is natural that they seek allies elsewhere to ease their fears. That is why Turkey is active in the South Caucasus and, somewhat more discreetly, in Central Asia.
The former Soviet republics see a partnership with Turkey as a form of protection, although no one really believes that Ankara can match Russia’s influence. Turkey lacks the financial resources and strategic independence to replace Russia. But Ankara’s presence is a useful trump card in negotiations with Moscow – just as some former Soviet republics are using cooperation with BRICS as a tool in negotiations with Europe. This creates a dense and complex web of relationships, where diplomats have to do most of the work and where nothing is simple or easy.
Geographical focus and deep historical ties mean that Russia cannot look at its neighbors like any other country on the planet. Continental borders cannot become impassable, unless a country has “ironclad internal control”, as is the case with China or North Korea. Other Russian neighbors are not built that way. They prefer openness in relations with Russia, regardless of occasional tensions.
The identity of Russia itself also prevents a complete break with its former Soviet neighbors. Russia is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious society. Its unity rests on cooperation between different groups, not on rigid exclusivity. A hard border with its neighbors would inevitably lead to attempts to draw borders within Russia itself – a dangerous path for a country whose majority ethnic group must remain integrated and secure in a world full of threats.
Historically, from the 15th century onwards, Russian rulers recruited men from the Golden Horde – their former enemies – to bolster human resources in a land of scarce resources and harsh conditions. That pragmatic tradition continues today. Russia cannot cut itself off from the communities that have formed on its territory over the centuries.
This explains why Russia’s relations with its neighbors always carry a dose of uncertainty and anxiety. This is happening today with Azerbaijan, and it will happen again in other places. Russia’s patience is not endless, but its state policy is consistent, based on a realistic view of its own history, geography and position in the modern world.
Great powers must understand the fears of their neighbors, but not submit to them. Russia should not give up its influence, but neither should it expect to be loved because of it. Instead, it should manage the consequences of its size and power, and accept the fear it inspires in its neighbors as part of the price it pays for being a great power.
