FOR THE RUSSIANS, IT’S A DISASTER EVEN WITHOUT NATO PARTICIPATION.
ISW – INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR
Editor’s note – we do not support NATO involvemnt in Ukraine, but we want to present information from all sides in the conflit, and the reader can make his own decision.
In its The Risks of a Russian Ceasefire Offer ISW’s Natalya Buganova writes:
“Ukraine may soon face a new threat in this war—Russia’s ceasefire offer. It seems odd to say that a ceasefire is a threat. Once war begins, the default position in the West is to seize the earliest opportunity to “stop the fighting.” But while some ceasefires lead to peace, others lead to more war—as the Russians have repeatedly shown. The frontlines frozen in a ceasefire set the conditions for the negotiations and reconstruction that follow. They also set conditions for future conflict. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to accept a Russian ceasefire offer that sets conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms or gives Russia leverage on Ukraine with which to force concessions and surrenders.”
Russia is on the ropes in Ukraine today.
“It has not achieved any of Putin’s central objectives. The Russian army is suffering damage that will take years to repair if repair is even possible. Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations, steadily pushing the Russians back from their positions around Kyiv and Kharkiv.”
Barbie Latza Nadeau via REUTERS
Fri, April 1, 2022, 6:41 AM·
“Russia claims to have disabled Ukraine’s air capabilities, but on Friday the Kremlin said Ukraine had carried out a successful fiery attack on a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod. A short time later, Russian media reported that an artillery shell had also landed nearby.
If confirmed, it would be the first time Ukraine has launched a counter-attack into Russian territory.”
“A ceasefire can stop the fighting, for a time, but it will also give Moscow a chance to reset and prepare to renew the fighting on more advantageous terms. Vladimir Putin has used this approach successfully in Syria and Ukraine since 2014. He will likely try to use it again soon, and we must recognize it for what it is—a trap.”
READ ANDREW BENJAMIN’S RUSSIA’S PULLBACK STRATEGY IS A HEADFAKE, with the disclosure of Russia’s actual goals.
“Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks around Kyiv, in northeastern Ukraine, and toward Kherson on March 31, successfully pressuring Russian forces and seeking to disrupt ongoing Russian troop rotations. Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv pushed Russian forces north of the E-40 highway and will likely assault Russian-held Bucha and Hostomel in the coming days. Ukrainian forces exploited limited Russian withdrawals east of Brovary to retake territory across Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts. Ukrainian forces likely conducted counterattacks toward Sumy in the past 24 hours as well, though ISW cannot independently confirm these reports. Finally, Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian forces only conducted offensive operations in Donbas and against Mariupol in the last 24 hours and did not make any major advances.
The Mariupol situation is interesting in that for weeks ISW expected Russia to capture the city within days. Not only has this not happened, ISW no longer makes this prediction.”
Russia is on the ropes in Vladimir Putin’s ill-advised war against civilization and Putin’s intent to retake the free, democratic nations of the former Eastern Bloc. Not one of those nations want anything to do with Russia – they’ve been there, done that!
The Russian aggression in its unprovoked terrorist war cannot be explained any other way than it is a manifestation of hubris and arrogance of a dictator whose legacy can only be seen in the rubble he left of Ukraine’s coastal city Mariupol, and the genocide left by retreating Russian troops. He will have left Russia and the Russian people, more damaged than they were a mere eight years ago. What you witness is the behavior of a dullard who did not learn from past mistakes.
Putin’s ahistorical narratives on Ukraine’s Russians, Ukraine’s “Nazis,” and Ukraine’s Jews, are the exact opposite of historical fact, the social fabric of Ukraine, and the realities about which you can read from this author:
So far, the Russian campaign and potential losses, as well as the Russian strategy to seize the south, will go down in history pretty much as predicted in these pages. The moral and legal clarity between the two warring parties cannot be clearer.
True, Russia has legitimate security interests in Ukraine. Meaning, Ukraine is a buffer zone against NATO’s encirclement. The same for NATO. The EU has security interests against Russian encroachment on any European nations’ territory, aligned or not-aligned with NATO. Ukraine considers itself Central Europe, for example Hungary and Austria, and not Eastern Europe, as are Russia and others, among which are the Baltic states.
Citing NATO and US involvement in an attempted coup during the Euromaidan that deposed a Russian puppet Ukrainians didn’t want, is a non-sequitur – beside the point. The Ukrainian people elected their own leader in a supervised democratic election with a 73 percent overwhelming vote.
Russia’s security interests are immaterial under international law. It is understood, that one nation cannot change the borders of another at will, and occupy its territory, regardless of its narratives, beliefs, and “interests.”
Russia has waged an illegal, unilateral war of aggression, without provocation, on Europe.
Europe, at least, sees it that way, as does this writer.
International law and the Budapest Memorandum agreements, not MINSK I & II, govern the security issues for Ukraine-Russia. Russia alone has violated the agreement it signed.
That, is the Bottom Line.
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