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A Black Sea ceasefire could quickly bring back the greater part of Russia’s grain export capacity, should attacks on Ukrainian ports and vice versa cease within a short period of time. However, the months of shelling have already taken their toll on the region’s most critical terminals.
Eighty percent of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov terminals used by Russia for grain exports can be brought back online within a matter of days, according to a Reuters analysis of data from industry sources. However, three of the biggest terminals have suffered serious damage and are likely to take months to repair, the analysis showed.
The diplomatic effort to revive the Black Sea grain trade — paralyzed by recent attacks on Russian ports and ships — is being led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with the participation of Indian, Egyptian, and other Middle Eastern countries, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. The Kremlin acknowledged diplomatic contacts are underway while saying Russia is simultaneously developing alternative export routes.
Reuters assessed the condition of Russia’s nine major grain terminals in the region, as well as smaller facilities in the Sea of Azov and the Don river delta, drawing on four sources familiar with terminal operations who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue. Before the attacks began, the Black Sea route handled up to 70% of Russia’s total grain exports.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter. Disruption to Black Sea shipments has already driven up global grain prices and renewed fears about food security.
The most severe damage involves NKHP, one of Russia’s three largest grain terminals, located in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The terminal — which has annual capacity of 7.1 million metric tons — was struck on August 12. A conveyor gallery at the facility was completely destroyed, collapsing onto a road. Staff were sent home indefinitely. “I don’t even know how long the shutdown will last,” one Novorossiysk source told Reuters. The company has said repairs could take up to four months; a source at the terminal put the estimate at six months.
Two other Novorossiysk terminals — KSK and NZT — suffered only minor damage and are ready to resume operations as soon as security conditions permit.
Two additional terminals remain offline: ZTKT at the Black Sea port of Taman, hit on July 30, and a terminal in Taganrog on the Azov Sea. Together ZTKT and Taganrog represent 6.7 million tons of annual capacity. ZTKT is currently unable to load grain, and the full scope of damage at both facilities remains unclear.
In total, terminals with combined capacity of roughly 53 million metric tons are currently idle due to security risks — but could resume operations if a ceasefire is reached. Total grain terminal capacity across the region stands at approximately 67 million metric tons.
The damage picture underscores both the stakes and the limits of diplomacy. Turkey, positioning itself as an indispensable mediator, has pushed hard for a maritime ceasefire that would allow grain to flow again to global markets. Egypt and India — major Russian grain importers — have added their weight to the effort, highlighting food security dimensions that extend well beyond the immediate conflict.
Russia, for its part, has maintained publicly that it is adapting its logistics. But the scale of disrupted capacity suggests a swift resolution would carry significant economic benefit for Moscow, even as it continues to resist broader ceasefire pressure on land.
