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Russian independent media outlet The Bell has thoughts on the appreciation of the Russian currency in 2025.
Since the beginning of 2025, the ruble is up against the U.S. dollar — one of the key benchmarks for assessing the Russian currency — by about 21%. While in January the dollar was worth around 103 rubles, it now trades at around 81 — a level not seen since spring 2023. Russian consumers have only benefited from this: they began to buy foreign holidays at more affordable prices, and inflation inside Russia has begun to slow down, according to the Central Bank’s analysts.
Exporters are not happy about the strong ruble, as it means their products are less competitive internationally. The contribution of exports to the revenue structure of metallurgical companies, for instance, is huge. Exports make up 85% of Nornickel’s revenue, and 70% for aluminum giant Rusal. Oil exporters’ revenues also depend on the ruble exchange rate, which, accordingly, determines the amount of taxes paid to the Russian budget. When the ruble is weak, revenues and payments to the treasury are higher. “The stability of the budget is the result of fine-tuning: when the ruble exchange rate is above 90 per dollar, revenues grow, while below, there are problems. Therefore, the government will keep the ruble weak, but not failing,” says Daniil Tyun, senior analyst at investment and analytical company AMCH.
Despite the ruble’s recent strengthening, analysts believe the currency is set to weaken. If the price of Brent crude oil falls to $50-60 a barrel due to the inevitable blow to global economic growth from the trade war (it is currently trading at $66 per barrel), the ruble may return to 95-100 against the U.S. dollar over the summer, further slumping to 100-110 during the fourth quarter, according to the asset management company Astra. At the moment the ruble looks excessively strong, so by the end of the year it could weaken to 95 against the dollar, Raiffeisenbank analysts expect. The economy minister is preparing for 98.7 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
