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With the Munich Security Conference looming, and a peace deal in Ukraine on the table, the Kremlin is looking for a way to ease sanctions on its economy.
Trump said Friday he would “probably” meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky next week — implying it would be in Washington as he ruled out travelling to Kyiv — and also said he would “talk to” Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to bring about an end to the “ridiculous” war. In remarks to reporters, the US President also doubled down on his calls to be given access to Ukraine’s “rare earths” — critical elements used in electronics — as part of any US brokered deal or security offer to halt the three-year war, wrote Russian independent news outlet The Bell.
There is no official confirmation from either side, but the latest rhetoric hints at some movement. For the first time Zelensky spoke this week of his willingness to enter face-to-face talks with Putin. Putin has repeatedly ruled out direct talks with Zelensky, but at the end of January said he was “ready to assign people to conduct these talks.”
Moscow has already seized the gauntlet, saying it is willing to negotiate with the US “in a tough bargaining mode, taking into account the realities on the ground and national interests,” deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said, echoing the position put forward by Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Putin himself has repeatedly signalled he is waiting for Trump to make the first move. He claimed that “if Trump’s victory was not stolen in 2020, there would be no war” and that the new US president “will quickly bring Europe’s political small fry into order.” These statements should be seen as a sign that Moscow is ready to negotiate directly with Washington, without the involvement of Kyiv or other European countries. For Putin, one-on-one talks with Trump are his best-case scenario.
Even a partial lifting of US sanctions would be a serious blow to the current international sanctions regime. Western countries are not obliged to agree on what sanctions to levy, with agreements, for instance between the G7 nations, coming voluntarily. To the Kremlin, a unilateral US move to scrap some sanctions would be a major crack in that coalition. Moscow could also be satisfied by a less radical step, such as a pledge not to intensify the implementation of existing sanctions.
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