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Avdiivka In Donbas: Another Encirclement Of Ukrainian Troops Can Lead To Ukrainian Collapse

Russian Missile Strike Causes Panic Among Ukrainian Leadership Over Loss Of Moral

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KYIV – Below is a situation report on the Russian assault on Avdiivka in Donbass, a critical junction in the conflict.

Situation: Tense, but Ukrainian control holds.

Russian Activity:

  • 22 assaults near Avdiivka, 7 near Tonenky/Nevelsky.
  • Aiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and gather intel.

Losses:

  • Russian forces: ~400-500 troops/day.
  • Ukrainian forces: Selidovo missile strike caused injuries (exact number unconfirmed, likely higher than 1,500 reported).

Ukrainian Response:

  • Reinforcements sent, including self-propelled artillery units.
  • 110th Mechanized Brigade withdrawn for rest and rotation.

Concerns:

  • Russian artillery shelling concentrated on Avdiivka high-rise area.
  • Drone surveillance creates “3D shooting gallery” situation for Russians in South Avdiivka.
  • Logistics route vulnerability if Industrial Avenue cut.
  • Information on Selidovo strike casualties classified by Ukrainian command.

Current situation in Avdiivka

At this point, the ZSU [Ukrainian forces] carried out 22 assaults in the area of ​​Avdiivka itself and 7 attacks in the areas of Tonenky and Nevelsky near the city.

Russian troops will force assault operations with the aim of cutting the logistics routes of the ZSU, to prompt Ukrainian armies to resist the attacks of Russian forces and for Russia to learn their enemy’s manpower and equipment.

According to sources, the Russian army loses approximately 400-500 special forces personnel per day.

The Russian Army fires up to 800-900 artillery rounds, most of them falling on Avdiivka itself.

Up to 1,500 injured or killed by Russian Iskander Missile strike on Selidovo, the gathering and logistics point of Ukrainian army near Avdiivka. Information has been ordered to keep in secret by the newly appointed Chief Commander Syrsky. He is afraid that the troops lose their motivation and morale to continue fighting in Avdiivka.

The recent Iskander missile strike on Selidovo, a key assembly point near Avdiivka, inflicted significant casualties. While the exact number remains classified, Ukrainian sources acknowledge injuries, dispute the claimed 1,500 casualties. The strike’s true impact, shrouded in secrecy by the newly appointed Chief Commander Syrsky, raises concerns about dampening Ukrainian morale.

Injuries from the missile strike have been noted; the use of 5V55, Iskander or other missiles cannot be ruled out.

Selidovo and Dobropolye became the main assembly points before the transfer to Avdiivka; previously this role was played by Mirnograd, but it has been under heavy fire since the beginning of the year. Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel stopped being driven there only last week

Information Blackout: The Ukrainian command’s decision to classify Selidovo casualties underscores the sensitivity of the situation. While the true numbers remain unknown, the strike undoubtedly dealt a blow to Ukrainian morale and combat effectiveness.

Reinforcement Shuffle: Despite the grim backdrop, reinforcements are arriving. The 110th Mechanized Brigade, a mainstay in Avdiivka’s defense, has undergone a critical rotation. Fresh self-propelled artillery units have taken their place, bolstering firepower. “It’s a real push,” admits a brigade liaison officer, acknowledging the welcome change after a tense period.

Encirclement and artillery shelling of Avdiivka

Source: real soldier at the Avdiivka Coke Refining Factory

Encirclement Looms: The battle for Avdiivka’s southern sector paints a worrisome picture. Russian forces relentlessly pound the area with artillery and thermobaric bombs (FABs), forcing Ukrainian units to retreat into high-rise buildings. Drone footage reveals a chilling reality: the “Tsar’s Hunt” area, housing the only remaining lifeline – Industrial Avenue – lies completely exposed to enemy eyes. Any movement is instantly detected. Fields beyond the avenue, intended as a future bypass route, are equally transparent, offering the Russians clear firing lanes. The entire southern sector resembles a “3D shooting gallery,” watched over by a network of drones.

The fate of Avdiivka hinges on maintaining this lifeline. If the Russians manage to sever Industrial Avenue, Ukrainian logistics will be choked, potentially jeopardizing the entire defense.

The Fight Continues: Despite the immense challenges, Avdiivka stands firm. Reinforcements are arriving, and the defenders adapt to the evolving battlefield. But the specter of encirclement and relentless artillery rain paints a grim picture. The coming days will be crucial in determining the fate of this embattled city.

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Source: Donbass operation, leaked photo from a drone

  • RF forces are intensifying their assault on Avdiivka, particularly the high-rise sector.
  • Ukrainian forces are strategically relocating while facing severe logistical challenges.
  • Complete air and ground surveillance by RF forces puts Ukrainian troops at a distinct disadvantage.

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