Russian analysts are suggesting Moscow may ‘act’ if the situation on the Afghan border with former Soviet territories deteriorates. The Kremlin maintains a security pact with its former client states called the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
From 2003 to 2016, Nikolay Bordyuzha was Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and in this capacity, he was involved in curbing the threats from Afghanistan. In an interview with the newspaper, he talked about how the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) takeover of Afghanistan poses a threat to Russia and when the CSTO may potentially get involved, reported Russian state news agency TASS.
He noted that the situation in Central Asia is cardinally changing since a hotspot of instability emerged in the immediate proximity of our allies’ borders. It is not clear how the situation will unfold in the wake of the American pullout, but the Taliban does not control the entire country and is facing resistance in Panjshir in addition to being opposed by rival terrorist groups. A lot will depend on the group’s policy which is now hard to predict.
Bordyuzha noted that the post-Soviet security bloc may get involved in the event of intervention or a direct threat of armed conflict with a member state of the CSTO, since it has all the necessary instruments to protect its members from any aggression. He believes that Russia should not hurry to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government and should see how the situation develops. He also does not think that Russia should accept any refugees from Afghanistan since it has no obligations to them and the consequences of their arrival in the country are unpredictable. A surge in drug trafficking from Afghanistan is also a likely consequence of the current crisis, since the country needs to sustain its economy by any possible means.
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