Ukraine, A Country Of Misery: Is A Peace Treaty Finally Being Forced On Zelinskiy?

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KYIV – In this article we continue our analysis of misery that is dragging on in Ukraine.

We observe the news on Ukraine every day and night, listening to the political observers, trying to find a clue what is expected on the political level in Ukraine. 

Let’s summarize the recent and not so recent events in 2023.

The current frontline is constantly moving due to offense from the Russian side and counter-offense from the Ukrainian side. A similar line of the front was seen one year ago. The frontline has stabilized in most directions. The offensives from both sides do not move the front in any major direction.

If you want to study the details and the territory you can visit the web-site of the Institute of the Study of War. It’s a quality source on information on the war in Ukraine.

This is a map of the current front-line.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20July%2030%2C%202023%20%28PDF%29.pdf

What’s going on? 

We see the following conclusions on the situation:

1. Western allies didn’t supply the necessary amount of weapons required for a successful counteroffensive. The counteroffensive was forecasted to begin in the summer of 2022 and should have continued into 2023. The counter offensive started in 2023.
2. The counteroffensive was declared by the US media on June 4^th. The Ukrainian army did start counter-offensive operations with “combat-intelligence”, but not a full-blown operation. Within a month, success hasn’t been reached.
3. On July 30^th, the US media declared the “real counteroffensive” into Russian fixed defensive lines. The counteroffensive will hit 5 lines of defense that were prepared within last year. Ukrainian observers say it’s made of concrete blocks and artillery staging areas. “The US generals tell Ukrainian generals to drive around the fixed defense lines,” quoted one source.
4. The current frontline can be characterized by the following observations: — “Russians do not move, but pretend they conduct offense. Ukrainians do move, but pretend they conduct counter-offense”.
5. Tactical wins are seen on both sides.
6. 73% of electricity grid destroyed in Ukraine, GDP is down 42% in 2022, industrial production is down 95%. The economy is devastated.
7. The country has lost 20% of its territory during the war. The Russian side gained two more regions in addition to those occupied in 2014-2015.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20July%2030%2C%202023%20%28PDF%29.pdf

Ukraine has not obtained the amount of arms promised by the Western allies. Why is that? 

We see the following reasons:

1. The war is led and fueled by neocons from outside of Ukraine and influencers from outside of Ukraine.
2. There is a plan to burn old Soviet-style reserves in the war, burning Russian reserves and weakening Ukrainian reserves.
3. There is a plan to reach a peace treaty with Russia, not breaking the Kremlin, but weakening Russia to the state of controlled chaos that may lead to collapse of the Putin regime in the future.
4. It’s too expensive to supply Ukraine with the amount of weapons and forces required to win the war. 
5. Dragging Russia into the war with Ukraine created a combination of strategic geopolitical moves that weakens both states and prepares dominos of crises in European territory.

A couple of week ago, we began to see rumors of the negotiations behind the curtains. Some political observers from Ukraine openly and blatantly declared the front-line will be frozen on the current map in the same manner Germany was divided into two countries after WWII. The ‘treaty’ will try to cool down the population saying, quoting: “Ukraine will never surrender its’ territory to bloody Russians”. 

What do we expect in the next several months? We expect rounds of behind the curtain negotiations. Russia is rocketing Ukraine every week to prepare a “surrender” treaty. The influencers from the USA and the UK who lead the war have given the Ukrainian government till the end of the summer for counter-offensive operations. The deadline is September. The forecasted scenario is to reach a “surrender-winning” treaty and cease-fire in the October-November timeframe.

We assume, that President Zelenskiy has ordered his puppets in the parliament to extend the illegitimate military “martial law” status in Ukraine, knowing his orders from Western allies. He ordered it ten days before the beginning of the current martial law term. Doing this, the illegitimate parliament created an unconstitutional dilemma and a violation. The consequence is such that the elections that should have been held in October will not be held and are moved to an undefined date. The state of Ukraine has fallen into dictatorship. 

The uncertainty of the Ukrainian state has increased. The parties behind the curtains will push Ukrainian weak puppets into the “misery treaty” based on some “cookie-benefits” offered to sweeten the surrender.

Sources:

1. US Media
2. Ukrainian media
3. https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20July%2030%2C%202023%20%28PDF%29.pdf

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