The liquidation of the Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani is an achievement for the US, yet it is not a game changer. Quds Force deputy commander Esma’il Ghani has been appointed commander. He is well acquainted with his boss’ vision and will likely go the same path, namely multiregional command and military diplomacy. Naturally ideologically he is not different from Soleimani.
We believe that the priority of the regime in the days to come is not to retaliate against the US but rather to exploit Soleimani’s death in order to foster national ideological cohesion in Iran, particularly needed now – against the background of the worsening socio-economic situation and recent brutally suppressed protests. Soleimani fits a category of Iranian fighters who with whom many Iranian patriots can identify, there is no need of Shi’ite devotion to respect Soleimani. Long and exaggerated mourning ceremonies will take place and the regime will focus on Soleimani as Iran’s national hero rather than as the imposer of Shi’ism in the Middle East. One should bear in mind that although not all the Iranians mourn Soleimani, national patriotic feeling in Iran remains strong. One of the images of Soleimani was also his fight against ISIS which is a consensus among Iranians. It is another question that such PR manipulations would not change much on the ground…
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