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Originally published at Andrew Korybko / Substack.
Putin will always do whatever he believes is in Russia’s best interests given the circumstances even if it’s compromising on his maximum goals and cutting deals with rivals.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told his country’s newest batch of diplomats in late October that their government is still interested in cooperating with the US despite all that’s happened since 2022. In his words, “We’ll see what they propose. If they propose something that benefits us economically and financially then why not? But it should not involve any political concessions on our part, and we also should not expect a political situation to emerge that will favor us in all global affairs.”
This is in spite of him also saying at the same event that “We should keep in mind that, at best, they are our rivals and at the very least, our opponents. They aren’t prepared for fair competition.” Relatedly, Lavrov declared that “We always say that we are ready to restore relations with those who are acting in good faith…We will not act like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said that they would never restore the Nord Stream pipelines…We will not be such idiots.”
That last part lends credence to a report that Trump’s peace plan envisages the post-war “economic integration of Russia, Ukraine and Europe through an energy deal”, which this analysis here suggested could be facilitated by US stakes in Russia’s pipelines obtained by returning its frozen EU assets. The day after Lavrov’s talk with his country’s newest batch of diplomats, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that the three damaged Nord Stream pipelines could be repaired.
He also reminded reporters that “One of the four lines is operational. If European consumers – or European countries and politicians – are willing, gas could certainly be supplied through this line.” Nord Stream has returned to the news lately amidst reports that it could figure into the grand deal that Trump wants to broker for ending the Ukrainian Conflict and maintaining stability in post-war Europe. US stakes in it as the “political safeguard” for resuming Russian energy exports to Europe could be the first step.
It’s possible that such an arrangement could even be agreed to before a ceasefire as a “goodwill gesture” on the American, German-led European, and Russian sides for taking their talks on Ukraine even further. Whatever might happen, however, it’s significant that Lavrov confirmed Russia’s interest in cooperating with the US since he’s famous among “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” (NRPRs) for unforgettably describing the West as “agreement-incapable”. That quip regrettably misled millions of people, however.
To this day, the vast majority of them imagine that every public declaration of interest in talks with the West is part of a “5D chess master plan for psyching out the West”, and they sincerely believe this even though Putin recently reaffirmed that he agreed to Trump’s requested compromises at Anchorage. The same goes for the diesel deal. The reality is that Lavrov’s remark about the West being “agreement-incapable” was just political rhetoric and not a statement of eternal Russian policy from then on out.
The Ukrainian Conflict will likely end with a deal that entails some compromises by Russia, thus falling short of its maximum goals from the onset of the special operation, but such an outcome shouldn’t be seen as a failure. What the NRPRs should accept before it happens in order to avoid disappointment, depression, and even despair is that Putin will always do whatever he believes is in Russia’s best interests given the circumstances even if it’s compromising on his maximum goals and cutting deals with rivals.
