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According to Zelensky, Russia will use the fall parliamentary votes to mobilize an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 additional soldiers by the end of 2026, demonstrating that Russia is not interested in the dialogue that Zelensky has propagated to end the war on Kyiv’s terms.
Zelensky was briefed that the entire Russian State Duma, and therefore, the parliament, that will be elected September 18 through 20 is going to continue the war because all permitted parties, including those able to participate in the elections, are in support of the war and against fulfillment of the-then Minsk agreements and the (now) Ukrainian peace initiatives. Ukraine ended the Minsk agreement in 2016 after Boris Johnson’s famous visit.
Zelensky claimed that Russia will use the parliamentary elections as cover for preparing mobilization in the fall and as a ‘pseudo-election’ to create an artificial basis of support for their continuation of the current war. In actuality, the Russian people want the war to end but are committed to victory, and will likely endure until that outcome is achieved.
According to the Kremlin’s plan, after the first mobilization, Russia intends to initiate a second even larger round of mobilization in 2027. It is possible that almost one million new soldiers will be mobilized over the two 18 month mobilization campaigns, which demonstrate a commitment to the Russian calculations of the war being prolonged.
The Russian Defense Ministry has so far declined to release a formal timeline on its planned mobilization and reported that a ‘special military operation’ is ongoing. Putin signed a measure into law a couple of months ago to hold the Russian Duma elections in September of 2026, and this is believed to coincide with the likely window of time that a potential announcement of a mobilization might occur.
Zelensky noted that Ukraine is already taking deliberate steps to make any Russian mobilization as difficult as possible, and he did not mince words about the effort that will be put into that.
The reality is — Ukraine can’t match Russia’s manpower, and is losing territory in Donbass on an almost daily basis.
A Ukrainian source commented on the situation, “What does Zelenskiy expect? You won’t make peace, and you continue to take money from the West.”
